80+ Population Growth Materially Exceeds Inventory Growth
Senior Housing Returns to a Favorable Balance between Resident Growth and Inventory Growth.
Senior housing fundamentals largely depend on the relationship between the 80+ population and the supply of senior housing stock. For most of the past decade, supply growth (senior housing inventory) exceeded demand growth (80+ population), leading to gradually declining occupancy rates.
However, beginning in 2022, this relationship inverted, with the 80+ population exceeding inventory growth. By 2023, 80+ population growth began to materially outpace supply. As a result, there is a growing gap between supply and demand growth, which will continue over the coming years unless senior housing development rapidly increases. In the meantime, the growing gap will likely materially lift senior housing occupancies, as inventory growth lags well behind demand
